WASHINGTON – It is a truth universally acknowledged that nations that are protected from harm by other nations soon grow to resent their dependence. That is why many Europeans were delighted to watch thousands of American troops depart after the collapse of the Soviet Union. It is why Israel rewarded decades of U.S. patronage by commissioning an American spy, Jonathan Pollard, to betray the United States, and why Pollard is a hero in Israel. It is also why South Korean voters have just elected Roh Moo-hyun as their new president.
The Wall Street Journal calls the 56-year-old onetime labor lawyer “South Korea’s (Gerhard) Schroeder,” and it is not hard to see why. Like Schroeder, Roh strives to keep the United States at arm’s length. Roh favors closer, more intense negotiations with North Korea, fully endorsing incumbent President Kim Dae-jung’s “sunshine” policy of diplomatic engagement over military confrontation. Nor is Roh content just to distance himself from the intimate U.S.-Korean ties that have characterized relations since the 1950s; he is relentlessly critical of U.S. policies, and the American military presence, on the Korean peninsula. He wishes to renegotiate the Status of Forces Agreement under which 37,000 troops patrol the 38th parallel. He wants U.S. forces removed from Seoul. And he wants South Korean courts to have jurisdiction over American servicemen.
That last point is key to the present situation. Last June, two American soldiers driving an armored personnel carrier ran over and killed two South Korean schoolgirls. The Bush administration quickly recognized the lethal character of the incident, and issued a series of official apologies, including one from George W. Bush. All to no avail. Because the two soldiers had been on duty at the time of the accident, under the terms of SOFA they were tried by a U.S. military tribunal. When the court found them innocent of negligent homicide, South Koreans exploded in rage. There were massive, sometimes violent, demonstrations, demands for withdrawal of all U.S. troops, and even a few isolated assaults on American soldiers.
Roh Moo-hyun captured the zeitgeist. While his opponent, Lee Hoi-chang, emphasized continued close relations with Washington, and vigilance toward North Korea, Roh rode the anti-American wave to a narrow victory. “In no circumstances will we cut our dialogue with the North,” he said on election night. “We should proudly say we will not side with either North Korea or the United States.”
Needless to say, the prospect of South Korean neutrality is deeply unnerving to the Americans. In his customary fashion, White House press secretary Ari Fleischer determinedly put a happy face on the situation, blandly noting that “the people of South Korea have once again demonstrated the enduring vitality and dynamism of democracy in their country.”
What he didn’t say, of course, is that the administration is nervously anticipating Roh’s post-election intentions. If, as expected, he tones down his campaign rhetoric and gives assurances that he understands the broader strategic threat from North Korea, the White House will know it can do business with Roh Moo-hyun. This optimistic thought was expressed by James Kelly, the assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, who announced that Roh’s election is an “opportunity to modernize and improve” the U.S.-South Korean alliance.
But if Roh Moo-hyun truly means what he says, the United States is facing a delicate situation. At a moment when the Bush administration is anxiously promoting “reform” in North Korea, the South Koreans have decided that U.S. troops constitute a greater problem than their Stalinist neighbor. The Wall Street Journal was appropriately petulant: “In his call of congratulations, President Bush should inform Mr. Roh that the U.S. does not stay where it isn’t wanted. American troops are there to protect Koreans, and if they no longer feel that is necessary, we will bring them home.”
The problem is that, as one-third of the axis of evil, North Korea may well be more lethal than Saddam Hussein’s Iraq. This is a country where most citizens suffer from lack of nourishment, but its nuclear-weapons program is proceeding on schedule. North Korea has sold offensive missile technology around the world, kidnapped dozens of Japanese citizens since the 1970s, and continually threatens to repeat its 1950 invasion of South Korea.
Because U.S. military authorities chose to insulate two negligent soldiers from local justice, the U.S.-South Korean alliance is now in jeopardy. There is no getting around the fact that South Korea’s new president was elected to nudge his country away from Washington and toward Pyongyang. And while Saddam Hussein distracts our attention and resources, North Korea’s belligerent and erratic leadership is encouraged.
Philip Terzian is the associate editor of the Providence Journal.
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