AUGUSTA — Shortly after a poll released Wednesday showed Republican gubernatorial candidate Paul LePage with a double-digit lead over Democrat Libby Mitchell, representatives from Eliot Cutler’s campaign offered the media internal survey data showing the independent candidate making gains in the five-way race for the Blaine House.
But according to Mark Brewer, an associate professor of political science at the University of Maine, the rush to share internal polling could be just one of several ominous signs for Cutler.
Wednesday’s results from Public Policy Polling tracked data from 1,468 respondents to an automated telephone survey. It showed Cutler at 11 percent, while LePage held a 43-29 advantage over Mitchell. Independent candidates Shawn Moody and Kevin Scott came in at 5 percent and 1 percent, respectively.
A Rasmussen poll conducted in August had Cutler at 16 percent among 500 likely voters, while LePage led Mitchell, 38-30.
Although much of the reaction to the latest survey has centered on LePage’s double-digit lead over Mitchell, Brewer said Cutler’s apparent falloff could be more significant.
“When I first saw the numbers, my first reaction was, ‘Wow, this is not a good outcome for Cutler,'” Brewer said.
Brewer’s reaction was shared by three other political science professors, who said Cutler’s chances to make inroads with voters are dwindling with eight weeks left before Election Day.
“What this confirmed for me was that there are basically two races going on,” said Chris Potholm, a professor of government at Bowdoin College. “There’s a two-way race for governor, and a three-way race for independent of the year.”
Ted O’Meara, Cutler’s campaign manager, disagreed. He said internal polling showed Cutler at 15 percent, two percentage points higher than another internal survey taken in July, and a drop-off by LePage and Mitchell.
“We’re surprised how much people are making of this poll,” O’Meara said.
He questioned the methodology of the survey and its “weak” sampling of younger voters, which he said, is where Cutler is finding support.
“It’s one poll,” he said. “We think it’s a mistake to take this one to the bank.”
Brewer, at the University of Maine, agreed it was too early to make firm determinations. But he wasn’t convinced Cutler was anywhere near breaking through the so-called viability wall.
“As a third-party candidate he has to overcome the fear among undecided voters that they’re not wasting their vote on him,” Brewer said.
He said Cutler’s sagging ratings, coupled with the Public Policy poll’s high number of undecided respondents – 12 percent – showed the candidate had yet to fully persuade Democratic voters who might be uninspired by Mitchell.
Sandy Maisel, a professor of government at Colby College said Mitchell and Cutler are essentially splitting the same votes.
“And Mitchell has yet to convince those voters that she’s their candidate,” Maisel said.
He said Cutler has to convince the electorate that he has a chance.
“He hasn’t done that,” Maisel said. “Voters will not invest in somebody who doesn’t have a chance.”
Jim Melcher, an associate professor of political science at the University of Maine at Farmington, said the poll also revealed that LePage, despite some early gaffes on the campaign trail, had to be taken seriously.
“If anybody still doesn’t believe LePage is a real threat, this should change that perception,” Melcher said.
Despite the positive takeaway for LePage, and the double-digit lead, Brewer said the Mitchell campaign has cause for optimism, particularly if Cutler fails to chip away at undecided Democrats.
He believes that the majority of Cutler supporters and undecided voters are Democrats.
“If Cutler keeps rolling flat, I think it goes to Mitchell,” said Brewer, adding that current Cutler supporters might jump ship for Mitchell if the independent can’t break through the viability wall.
“I think the majority of Cutler supporters won’t vote for LePage,” he said.
Maisel expects Mitchell will begin attacking LePage and the GOP’s tea party connections.
In June, the Maine Republican Party adopted a tea party platform that has been characterized as extreme, given the state GOP’s traditionally moderate standards, for including proposals to seal U.S. borders, eliminate the U.S. Department of Education and the global warming “myth.”
Maisel said the only reason Mitchell and Democrats may be withholding broadsides on LePage’s tea party affiliation is the availability of campaign money in the Maine Clean Elections Fund.
Mitchell is a Clean Election candidate.
“I suspect they’ve already made an ad buy that will exploit LePage’s tea party connections and the GOP platform,” Maisel said.
The attack began Wednesday, when the Democratic Governors Association released a 30-second TV ad blasting LePage’s “extreme environmental agenda.”
The Maine GOP issued a release calling the ad “a riot” and the result of desperate Democrats sagging in the polls.
“(The ads) honestly look like they were made by some D.C. intern who couldn’t spot Maine on a map if they had to,” the release said.
According to a recent report in Politico, the Democratic Governors Association, which works to support the 26 Democratic governors currently in office, plans to target gubernatorial races in battleground states with “disproportionate influence over national politics.”
Maine, it seems, is one of them.
smistler@sunjournal.com
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