Fear is predictable.
It distorts facts.
In the shadow of Thursday’s arson fires, a lot people asked, “What’s with all the fires in Lewiston?”
What they really meant was, “What’s with all the arson fires in Lewiston?”
Last year’s weeklong spree of arson fires and then Thursday’s spate of the same have caused the perception that Lewiston has a greater-than-normal number of arson fires.
That’s not true.
The Maine Department of Public Safety keeps detailed records of arson fires, breaking down the number of fires each year in each town in Maine.
The most recent available report is from 2012, so statistics aren’t yet available for last year or for 2014 to date, so we took a look back over the decade between 2003 and 2012.
During that period, there were 182 arson fires in Portland, 111 in Augusta, 101 in Lewiston, 45 in Bangor, and 29 in Auburn. So, based on the number of incidents alone, Portland appears to be Maine’s arson center.
But that isn’t true, either.
Augusta is.
Given the number of arson fires per capita, Augusta’s arson rate is twice that of Portland and Lewiston.
The rates for Portland and Lewiston are precisely the same.
So, the fear in this city that it has become some kind of magnet for arsonists isn’t true.
And, even though our fear of arson is natural and understandable, the fact is that property is much more likely to be damaged and people are much more likely to be killed by fires started from smoking, cooking and electrical malfunctions than by arson.
In fact, 30 percent of all fire fatalities in 2011 were caused by smoking, which is a trend seen across the country.
That doesn’t mean people shouldn’t fear arson. They should. But, there’s a lot of room between being disabled by fear and being cautious about suspicious people or behaviors.
Most fires are not arson fires.
For example, in 2011, according to the Fire Marshal’s Office, the Lewiston Fire Department responded to 1,866 emergency calls for fire, medical treatment, hazardous materials and false alarms. Of all calls, 166 were actual fires. Of those, 14 were arson fires.
Portland responded to 474 fire calls in 2011. Of those, 18 were arson.
If we look only at the percentage of arson fires among all fires in Maine’s cities, Lewiston is high, but what may be a bigger problem for Lewiston is the aging wooden-structures that make up so much of the city’s housing stock.
Code improvements over the years have reduced fire damage in new construction, but the fact is that wood burns fast and hot, and when fire hits an old-construction apartment building it can quickly get out of control.
In its most recent report of “Fire in Maine,” the Fire Marshal’s Office offers a tale of two Maine towns: Milo and Camden.
In 2008, a small fire in Milo started in Hobknobbers Pub, a wooden building pressed right up against another wooden building, which pressed against another and another. The fire that started in the pub consumed four other buildings before firefighters from 11 departments were able to put it out.
That same year, fire broke out at a construction site at the Bay View Landing along Camden’s waterfront. What was supposed to be a 150-seat restaurant was under construction and the fire marshal required the owner to construct a cement block firewall between it and other buildings on the landing. That firewall, required by code, prevented the spread of fire to other buildings and limited damage to the construction site.
The report speculates that had that firewall not been installed, fire could have spread to other buildings. “Given the value of waterfront property and property in Camden in general, this fire could have very easily been the most expensive disaster in Maine history,” according to that report.
Lewiston’s housing stock does not have firewalls between old-construction buildings. Here, the buildings better match the scenario in Milo, and when fire strikes it moves fast.
There is no question people are afraid, and they told us so this week. Some people said they have decided to leave Lewiston, while others have resolved to stay and stand up for their city, and to watch and report suspicious activity.
These are personal decisions, and people should do what they must for themselves and their families, but we need to remember — moving forward from Thursday’s events — that we face fire danger every day from sources more ordinary than an intentionally set blaze.
The fact is we have more to fear from a smoker living in the next apartment building, or someone leaving a pot on a stove, or faulty wiring in an aging building than we do from any other fire source.
jmeyer@sunjournal.com
The opinions expressed in this column reflect the views of the ownership and the editorial board.
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