These two things essentially ensure that Sunday’s game — Super Bowl LI — will be fun and that the Atlanta Falcons can win.
First, the Patriots’ Super Bowl games are always close, and sometimes closer than they should be.
Sunday’s game against the Falcons is the seventh time the Patriots have played in the planet’s biggest game since the turn of the millennium, aka the birth of the Brady-Belichick Era. The first four of those games were decided by three points; the other two by four points.
The second good thing about New England playing in the Super Bowl is that the game can go either way. The Patriots shouldn’t have defeated the Rams in 2002, they probably should have beaten the Eagles and Panthers by more, they shouldn’t have lost to the Giants in 2008, and maybe even 2012.
By this point, any Patriots fan reading this must be thinking that I’m hater — Patriots fans tend to think that about everybody these days — but I’m not. In fact, the win over the Rams in Super Bowl XXXVI rates as one of my all-time favorite sports moments, and I’ve had a fondness for them ever since.
That being said, considering the greatness of Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, the Patriots haven’t exactly been at their best in The Big Game. That’s good for the entertainment value of Sunday’s game, and it also is good for Atlanta.
So history gives the Falcons a chance. I think the present team will get the franchise’s first Lombardi Trophy. (I realize that saying, “I think,” is’t the most confident way to take a stance. But I’m no dummy, and only a dummy would be completely certain of a Patriots loss.)
First, they have Matt Ryan. He had arguably the best season of any quarterback in the NFL in 2016, and the Falcons have the best offense. Ryan, threw for 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns with only seven interceptions in the regular season. The Falcons averaged 33.8 points per game, and have upped that to 39 ppg in the playoffs.
The Patriots had 2016’s best scoring defense (15.6 ppg) in 2016, but they haven’t faced anyone like Ryan. In fact, they haven’t faced many quarterbacks even close to Ryan.
Look at the Patriots’ schedule. They’ve played against only two top-level quarterbacks: Seattle’s Russell Wilson in Week 10, and Pittsburgh’s Ben Roethlisberger in the AFC championship game Jan 22.
New England lost to Wilson and the Seahawks, 31-24, on Nov. 13.
The Patriots did beat the Steelers, 36-17, in the AFC title game, but were the Steelers even at full strength? Remember that two weeks prior to that game, Roethlisberger was wearing a walking boot, and one week prior against the Chiefs, he wasn’t able to lead the Steelers to any touchdowns, just six field goals. The Patriots’ defense deserves the benefit of the doubt, but there is still doubt that exists, enough for the win over Roethlisberger to be considered hard evidence.
Despite his monster season, Ryan might still be a question mark. He doesn’t have a history of being a postseason stalwart. But he’s answered that — maybe not completely, but more than a little bit — by leading the Falcons to blowout wins over the Seahawks and Packers in the playoffs.
Ryan isn’t as good as Tom Brady, but he is good enough to beat the Patriots. Especially considering Atlanta’s offensive supporting cast is better than New England’s.
For starters, LaGarrette Blount cannot be counted on. The Patriots’ top runner certainly capable of taking over a game, but he isn’t consistent. And he’s in a rut, and hasn’t run for more than 51 yards since Dec. 12, and, in the five games since that day, he has averaged more than 3 yards per carry only once.
Atlanta, meanwhile, has the reliable, versatile tandem of Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman. Both averaged more than 4.4 yards per carry during the regular season (Blount averaged 3.9), and both were significantly involved in the passing game: Freeman ranked third on the team in receptions (54 for 462 yards) and Coleman was fifth (31 for 421 yards).
Both teams will have a hard time containing the other’s receivers. There’s an underrated corps in New England, but Atlanta’s Julio Jones is a next-level player. He caught 83 passes for 1,409 yards and six touchdowns. In the postseason, he has 14 receptions for 247 yards and three scores. Complementing Jones is Mohamed Sanu (59 catches for 653 yards and four touchdowns) and Taylor Gabriel (35, 579, six touchdowns). Then there’s the pass-catching backs, Freeman and Coleman.
All these weapons will be crucial Sunday, because the offenses will light up the scoreboard. In fact, since I’m in a predicting mood, here is another: for only the second time, and the first since 1979, both teams will surpass 30 points.
The Patriots are playing in an NFL-record ninth Super Bowl on Sunday. By the end of the night, they will have a record-tying fifth Super Bowl loss.
The Falcons, meanwhile, will be celebrating, along with their city. To paraphrase Atlanta hip-hop artist Jermaine Dupri’s track “Welcome to Atlanta,” the party won’t stop until eight in the morning.
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