Kentucky Derby hopeful Lord Miles works out at Churchill Downs on Tuesday in Louisville, Ky. The 149th running of the race is scheduled for Saturday. AP Photo/Charlie Riedel
Many horse players are surely hoping Saturday’s Kentucky Derby offers a repeat performance of last year’s race, when Rich Strike – an 80-1 long shot acquired in a $30,000 claiming race – stunned the field to grab the first leg of the Triple Crown. That relatively unknown horse rewarded his few backers with the second-biggest win payoff in the race’s history, a $163.60 return on a $2 win bet. It ranked behind only Donerail, who paid $184.90 on a $2 win bet in 1913.
While Rich Strike was an outlier, this year’s Run for the Roses appears to be wide open, which means a substantial surprise could happen again. The morning-line favorite, Forte, has numerous red flags, including quality of competition and pedigree concerns. His latest of five straight victories, in the Grade I Florida Derby, was filled with maiden winners and optional claimers, with just one other horse in the field of 12, Dubyuhnell, having won against graded stakes competition. At short odds, the value lies elsewhere.
Who could duplicate Rich Strike’s feat this time around other than Confidence Game, my pick to win? Here are a few candidates to consider, along with their morning line odds:
TWO PHIL’S (12-1)
His 5 1/4-length victory in the Grade III Jeff Ruby Steaks was over Turfway Park’s synthetic Tapeta track, leading some to wonder about his performance on dirt. Don’t worry: It’s solid. The son of Hard Spun has hit the board in four of his six starts on a fast dirt surface. He’s also one of the fastest horses in the field, earning triple-digit speed figures from the Daily Racing Form, Brisnet and TimeFormUS. In this 20-horse field, only Forte and Santa Anita Derby winner Practical Move have earned speed figures of 100 or more from each of those three outlets.
If Two Phil’s wins the derby, he should be considered a Triple Crown threat. He has the speed to tackle the Preakness and the stamina to carry that speed over 1 1/2 miles in the Belmont Stakes.
SKINNER (20-1)
Skinner is a late bloomer who needed four tries to break his maiden. He has had moderate success since – two third-place finishes at Santa Anita, in the Grade II San Felipe Stakes and the Grade I Santa Anita Derby – and is still looking for his first victory against the non-maiden ranks. However, he has the pedigree and connections for an upset.
His sire, Curlin, is no stranger to producing Triple Crown stakes winners – 2016 Preakness winner Exaggerator and 2013 Belmont Stakes winner Palace Malice – and Curlin’s son, Keen Ice, sired Rich Strike. Skinner’s maternal grandsire, Malibu Moon, is the father of 2013 Kentucky Derby winner Orb. Trainer John Shirreffs was responsible for 50-1 winner Giacomo in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, which at the time paid the second-biggest price in Derby history. Shirreffs was also the trainer for Zenyatta, who won 19 of 20 starts and was the first (and only) mare to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic.
Skinner’s key to victory is a fast pace, which would allow him to pick up the pieces and rally past tiring horses.
LORD MILES (30-1)
Winning the first leg of the Triple Crown would be a fitting encore for Lord Miles, who won the Grade II Wood Memorial by a nose at Aqueduct in April as a 59-1 long shot. No one could blame you for overlooking Lord Miles, another son of Curlin. The victory on the Kentucky Derby trail was his first since breaking his maiden at Gulfstream Park in November, and his past performances listed three straight unplaced efforts against stakes competition.
However, a sixth-place finish by 11 lengths in a field of eight in the Grade III Holy Bull Stakes could be excused due to first-time blinkers. His trip in the Grade III Tampa Bay Derby a few weeks later started with a bump with another horse to his outside. Despite that rough start, he still managed to beat more than half the 11-horse field at odds of almost 30-1.
Now that Lord Miles exceeded his best speed figure earned as a 2-year-old – 89 in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes – in the Wood win (99), we can expect another step forward soon. If it happens at Churchill Downs, Lord Miles could make upset-minded bettors happy again.
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