LEWISTON — Andrew Kageleiry runs numbers, not footballs.
When it comes to the controversy over underinflated footballs, the Bates College alumnus can tell you a lot about things like p-values, average pressure drops, transient curves and timing variables. What he cannot tell you is whether New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady had any clue he was handling underinflated balls in the AFC Championship, a flap now known as Deflategate.
He can’t tell you for sure, anyway.
“I have a hunch,” Kageleiry told a group at the Bates Carnegie Science Hall on Wednesday night.
The 2012 Bates graduate is now a senior analyst with The Analysis Group, a team of consultants who used statistical evidence to suggest that the Patriots’ balls were not tampered with — to help get Brady’s suspension overturned, in other words, for those scoring at home.
“Kind of a fun case,” Kageleiry said. “Kind of an unusual case.”
That he wasn’t back at Bates to talk about football as an average fan was evident from the start.
“I tricked you all,” he told the group of roughly a dozen, “into a late-night class on statistics.”
Kageleiry wasn’t kidding. With the help of a series of slides and a few videos, he explained how The Analysis Group took a look at the evidence at hand, including figures like logo gauge measurements and non-logo gauge measurements. Figures that included what would appear to be minutia to the laymen: PSI measurements at halftime; differences, by team, in pressure drops. The vexing problem of wet balls versus dry balls when measurements are taken.
What it boils down to is this: Kageleiry and his colleagues were able to demonstrate, through statistical reasoning, that the Patriots balls may have shown less PSI mainly because their balls were tested minutes — and possibly several minutes — before the Colts balls were examined. The time difference may have had an effect on the PSI results, Kageleiry said, as might the fact that the Patriots balls had been exposed to more moisture. The team did completely dominate the first half, after all, meaning their balls were on the field longer.
It’s complex stuff, but it was enough to gain a reprieve for Brady, whose suspension was overturned in early September. That’s the good news for Patriots fans who “have been totally preoccupied by this going on 10 months now,” as Jim Hughes, chairman of the Bates Economics Department, put it.
The bad news is that the NFL can appeal that ruling, so Deflategate will very likely continue into 2016.
“This,” Hughes said, “will go on forever.”
In the interest of full disclosure, Hughes admitted that he’s an ardent Patriots fan. And Kageleiry? He’s not just a Tom Brady fan but “a huge Tom Brady fan.”
At last, something that didn’t require a chart to explain.
Deflation for your head
Another Bates alumnus took a different approach to the Deflategate madness. Mike Lieber launched DeflateGateHats.com, an online store that sells limp, foam football hats with needles stuck in them. They call it the “Airhead Plus.” There are variations called the “Airhead” and the “Pinhead,” for those who like to mix it up.
Don’t get too excited about the local connection, however. Lieber, you see, is a native of Indianapolis, and was cheering for the other side during the AFC Championship, from which the ball scandal emerged. Lieber announced his new product in his home state, where football fans were still grieving and still fuming.
“I wanted to do the launch in Indy, where Deflategate cuts closest to the bone,” Lieber told Indianapolis news organization IndyStar. “I want Indianapolis to make things go viral.”
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